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本文从非线性视角构建STR模型,实证WTI油价变化对我国经济增长影响。结果表明:固定资产投资和货币供给增加刺激我国总需求,抵消了WTI油价上涨从总供给角度对我国经济增长的负向直接影响,从而最终使两者之间存在同向变动关系,所以WTI油价变化对我国经济增长影响结果是由总需求变化决定。经济新常态下,应通过财政和货币政策适度扩大总需求,实现当前WTI低油价有利我国经济增长的预期。
This article build STR model from the nonlinear perspective, empirical WTI oil price changes on China’s economic growth. The results show that the increase of fixed asset investment and money supply stimulate China’s total demand and offset the direct impact of WTI rising oil prices on China’s economic growth from the perspective of total supply. As a result, WTI oil prices The impact of changes on China’s economic growth is determined by changes in aggregate demand. Under the new economic normal, the aggregate demand should be moderately expanded through fiscal and monetary policies so as to realize the expectation that the current WTI low oil price will benefit our country’s economic growth.