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“镰刀弯”地区是典型的旱作农业区和畜牧业发展优势区,生态环境脆弱,涉及我国北方及西南13个省(区).本文根据1981—2010年“镰刀弯”地区650个气象台站的逐日资料和精细化格点数据(1 km×1 km),采用公认的农业气象指标以及目前国际上比较流行的估算作物气候生产潜力的农业生态区划(AEZ)模型,结合卫星遥感监测的土地利用分类信息,对1981—2010年期间该区春玉米种植的气候适宜程度和气候生产潜力进行了定量评估,并结合玉米生物特性及农业气候资源特点,提出合理调整次适宜、不适宜区农业生产结构的科学对策.结果表明:1981—2010年期间,“镰刀弯”北部春玉米种植区气候生产潜力从东向西总体呈现“大-中-较小-小”的分布格局,而南部种植区春玉米气候生产潜力分布无明显规律,总体处于“较小-中”之间;1981—2010年期间,“镰刀弯”北部玉米种植区从东南向西北总体呈现“最适宜-适宜-次适宜-不适宜”的分布格局;而南部种植区从东南向西北总体呈现“不适宜-次适宜-适宜-最适宜”的分布格局.春玉米种植最适宜区分布面积最大(47%),其次为次适宜区(23%)和不适宜区(17%),适宜区最小(13%).其中,玉米次适宜、不适宜种植面积占该地区现有总耕地面积的40%.春玉米最适宜、适宜种植区主要位于东北大部、华北、西北地区东南部,次适宜或不适宜区主要位于内蒙古、新疆北部、甘肃西部和广西等地.根据气候条件分析,建议重点调减西北风沙干旱区、东北冷凉区、北方农牧交错区和西南石漠化区内的气候次适宜区、不适宜区的玉米种植,并且该区域也属于作物气候生产潜力较低的种植区.
The “Sickle bend” region is a typical dry farming area and the dominant area for animal husbandry development, and its ecological environment is fragile and involves 13 provinces (districts) in the north and southwest of China. According to the “Sickle bend” area from 1981 to 2010, The daily data and refined grid data (1 km × 1 km) of 650 meteorological stations are based on the accepted agro-meteorological indicators and the currently popular AEZ model for estimating crop climatic production potential. Combined with satellite According to the land use classification information monitored by remote sensing, the climate suitability and climate potential of spring maize planting in this area during 1981-2010 were quantitatively evaluated. Combining the characteristics of maize biological characteristics and agricultural climate resources, The results showed that from 1981 to 2010, the potential of climate productivity in spring maize planting area in north of “Sickle bend” showed “big - middle - small - small” from east to west, The distribution pattern of spring maize climate in the southern growing areas showed no significant regularity in the distribution of climate potential, with the overall situation being between “small” and “medium”. From 1981 to 2010, the northern corn planting area of “Sickle bend” Northwest total The distribution patterns of “most suitable-suitable-sub-suitable-unsuitable” showed the distribution pattern of “unsuitable-sub-suitable-suitable-optimum” from southeast to northwest in the south. The area with the most suitable area is the largest (47%), followed by the sub-suitable area (23%) and the un-suitable area (17%), the least suitable area The existing 40% of the total cultivated area is the most suitable spring maize, suitable for planting areas are mainly located in most of Northeast China, North China and Northwest China southeast, sub-suitable or not suitable mainly in Inner Mongolia, northern Xinjiang, western Gansu and Guangxi. According to the analysis of climatic conditions, it is suggested to focus on reducing the climate sub-suitable areas in the Northwest windy arid area, the northeast cold area, the north farming and stockbreeding area and the southwest rocky desertification area, and the unsuitable area for maize planting, and the area also belongs to the crop Crops with low potential for climate production.