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为了科学评价稀土产业周期波动和深入刻画稀土产业随时序变化的轨迹,本研究利用时序全局主成分分析方法寻找影响我国稀土产业周期波动的主成因,正确反映稀土产业周期波动,为正确做出稀土产业经济决策提供理论依据。通过研究发现,自1990~2013年,我国稀土产业景气周期大致经历了3个完整的周期。从主成分的综合影响度来看,就国内市场来说,对稀土产业景气周期影响大的因素依次是出口税率、国内消耗量、开采总量控制指标、氧化物价格、出口额、金属价格、生产总量、出口配额,而国外市场对稀土产业景气周期影响大的因素依次是出口量、生产总量、出口配额。其他因素综合影响较小。
In order to scientifically evaluate the periodic fluctuation of rare earth industry and characterize the trajectory of rare earth industry with time sequence changes, this study uses the sequential global principal component analysis method to find the main factors that affect the cyclical fluctuations of rare earth industry in our country, correctly reflects the periodic fluctuations of rare earth industry, Industrial economic decision-making to provide a theoretical basis. Through the study found that from 1990 to 2013, China’s rare earth industry boom generally experienced three complete cycles. From the perspective of the comprehensive impact of the main components, in terms of the domestic market, the factors that greatly affect the business cycle of rare earth industry are the export tax rate, domestic consumption, the control index of total production volume, oxide prices, exports, metal prices, The total amount of production and export quota, while the factors that greatly influence the economic cycle of rare earth industry in foreign markets are the export volume, the total output volume and the export quota. The combined effect of other factors is smaller.