2012年,将是国际金融市场更加不平静的一年。回顾2008年以来的危机脉络,可以看到,危机的严重程度是自中心向外围递减。由于国际金融体系日趋复杂庞大,金融资产占GDP比重越高的经济体受危机的影响越严重、越直接。因此,危机的传导链条必然是美国→欧洲→新兴经济体,而金融危机则通过流动性影响到实体经济。2008年新兴经济体经历了一次快速的实体紧缩,但由于迅速采取了大规模的经济刺激政策,并没有全面爆发经济危机。从全球各主要经济体的危机救助政策来看,美国目前基本上已经完成了金融和产业层面的资 In 2012, it will be a more unsettling year for international financial markets. Looking back at the crisis context since 2008, one can see that the severity of the crisis is decreasing from the center to the periphery. Due to the increasingly complicated international financial system, the economy with the higher proportion of financial assets in GDP is more directly affected by the crisis. Therefore, the chain of transmission of the crisis must be the United States → Europe → emerging economies, while the financial crisis affects the real economy through liquidity. Emerging economies experienced a rapid physical contraction in 2008, but due to the rapid adoption of a large-scale economic stimulus policy, there was no full-scale economic crisis. From the crisis relief policies of all the major economies in the world, the United States has basically completed the financial and industrial-level funding