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本文通过对北京中长期预测模型的研究,从理论与实践上阐述了中长期预测模型建立的思想、模型的结构及所采用的主要技术方法,并对模型拟合结果进行分析,确保了应用该模型进行预测的准确性。在此基础上,对北京市未来十五年的经济发展状况进行了多方案的预测与分析,提出优选方案。研究成果已在计委制定《北京市国民经济和社会发展“九五”计划和2010年远景目标》中采用。
Based on the research on medium- and long-term forecasting model in Beijing, this paper expatiates on the theory and practice of the thinking of medium- and long-term forecasting model, the structure of the model and the main technical methods adopted, and analyzes the model fitting results to ensure that the application of the The accuracy of the model for predicting. On this basis, the paper predicts and analyzes the status of Beijing’s economic development over the next fifteen years in various ways and puts forward the optimal plan. The research results have been adopted by the Planning Commission in formulating the “Ninth Five-Year” Plan for National Economic and Social Development and Vision for 2010 in Beijing.