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通过对山西明代历史文献资料的搜集和统计分析,研究了该地区霜雪低温灾害的等级、阶段、周期与成因。结果表明,明代山西共发生霜雪低温灾害114次,其中轻、中、重度分别为22,66,26次。灾害变化可分为2个阶段,公元1368—1519年为第一阶段,频次较少,强度较弱,以轻、中度灾害为主;1520—1644年为第二阶段,频次较高,强度较大,以中度和重度灾害为主。小波分析显示,灾害存在3个明显的周期,即2～3 a,9～14 a和45～55 a。明代山西在1531—1533年、1578—1588年、1591—1607年和1631—1642年共发生了4次寒冷气候事件。寒冷气候事件都发生在1520年之后,说明明代中晚期的气候比早期寒冷。
Through the collection and statistical analysis of the historical documents and materials in the Ming Dynasty in Shanxi Province, the level, stage, period and causes of frost-snow disaster in this area were studied. The results show that a total of 114 low temperature frost damage occurred in Shanxi in the Ming Dynasty, of which light, medium and severe were 22,66,26 times respectively. Disaster change can be divided into two stages, AD 1368-1519 for the first phase, less frequent, weak intensity, light and moderate disasters; 1520-1644 for the second phase, the higher the frequency, the intensity Larger, with moderate and severe disasters. Wavelet analysis shows that there are 3 obvious periods of disasters, that is, 2 ~ 3 a, 9 ~ 14 a and 45 ~ 55 a. In the Ming Dynasty, Shanxi experienced four cold climate events in 1531-1533, 1578-1588, 1591-1607 and 1631-1642. Cold climate events occurred after 1520, indicating that the mid-late Ming dynasty had a colder climate than the earlier one.