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分析研究了基于环境因素影响下的矿业安全系统态势预测方法,引入了自然条件、社会环境、法律法规、企业管理和作业环境5个环境因素,采用层次分析法确定在这些环境因素影响下,矿业安全系统态势发展的权重,应用马尔科夫预测模型建立了状态转移矩阵,从而构建了矿业安全系统态势的马尔科夫-层次分析模型,以矿业安全事故数为基础,分析了矿业安全系统的态势发展趋势。预测结果表明,马尔科夫-层次分析模型结构简单、符合逻辑且结果可靠,综合考虑了当前矿业安全系统的环境影响因素,可为近期预测提供依据。
Based on the environmental factors, this paper analyzes and analyzes the situation of mining safety system based on environmental factors, and introduces five environmental factors including natural conditions, social environment, laws and regulations, business management and operating environment. Analyzed by AHP, under the influence of these environmental factors, The weight of the development of security system situation, the establishment of the state transition matrix using Markov forecasting model to build a Markov-level analytic model of the situation of mining security system, based on the number of mining accidents, analyzed the situation of mining safety system development trend. The prediction results show that the Markov-level analysis model is simple, logical and reliable. Considering the environmental factors of the current mining safety system, it can provide the basis for the near future prediction.