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一般认为股利政策是股价的重要信号之一,但是不同交易制度下股利对股价影响的研究却相当缺乏。从计算金融学的角度,通过计算实验的方法,构建了具有中国股票市场特征的人工金融市场,分别在做市商的交易机制和双向拍卖交易机制下,研究股利支付的变化对股价的影响。结论表明,在做市商交易机制下,股利可以传递信息,而在双向拍卖交易机制下,投资者不能通过股利来获得股票的信息。这个结论对交易者的投资决策和上市公司股利政策的制定具有一定参考作用。
Dividend policy is generally considered one of the important signals of stock price, but the research of the influence of dividend on stock price under different trading system is quite lacking. From the perspective of computational finance, this paper constructs an artificial financial market with Chinese stock market characteristics by means of computational experiments, and studies the effect of changes in dividend payout on stock prices under the market maker’s bidding mechanism and two-way bidding transaction mechanism respectively. The conclusion shows that under the mechanism of market maker, dividend can transmit information, and under the two-way auction mechanism, investors can not get stock information through dividend. This conclusion has some reference to the investment decision of traders and the formulation of dividend policy of listed companies.