当前的工程结构设计,在国内的结构设计规范中,多已采用以概率理论为基础的极限状态设计法。其要点之一是如何确定结构在设计基准期内容许的失效概率。但对于现存的结构如何去评估它的失效概率或可靠度,却存在两种不同的看法,这将涉及概率统计的不同学派问题。本文的目的在于力图客观地陈述争论双方的分歧以供读者讨论。 In the current engineering structure design, in the domestic structural design specification, the limit state design method based on probability theory has been adopted. One of the main points is how to determine the failure probability of the structure in the design reference period. However, there are two different views on how the existing structure evaluates its failure probability or reliability. This will involve different schools of probability statistics. The purpose of this article is to strive to objectively state the differences between the parties to the debate for the reader to discuss.