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为分析需求预测不确定性对交通网络设计的影响,根据需求预测结果的不同类型,建立了适用于连续型需求的基于灵敏度分析的交通网络设计模型和适用于离散型需求的基于未来情形预测的交通网络设计模型。模型均由两项组成,前一项表示网络效益,后一项表示网络稳定性。给出了两类模型的构造过程,探讨了模型的求解方法与适用范围。计算结果表明:随着设计参数变小,网络效益变小,网络稳定性变大,进而得到不同的网络设计结果。可见,考虑需求不确定性的模型能准确地反映实际的交通网络设计目标。
In order to analyze the influence of demand forecast uncertainty on traffic network design, a traffic network design model based on sensitivity analysis and a forecast based on future scenarios for discrete demand are established according to different types of demand forecast results Traffic Network Design Model. The model consists of two components, the first one represents the network efficiency, the latter one represents the network stability. The construction process of two kinds of models is given, and the solution method and the applicable scope of the model are discussed. The calculation results show that as the design parameters become smaller, the network efficiency becomes smaller, the network stability becomes larger, and then different network design results are obtained. Therefore, the model considering the demand uncertainty can accurately reflect the actual traffic network design goals.