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阿克苏河源区的冰川融水和冰湖溃决洪水,对我国境内阿克苏河乃至整个塔里木河的径流补给及下游的防洪安全都有着举足轻重的作用.萨雷扎兹-库玛拉克河的麦茨巴赫冰川湖(Merzbacher Lake)为众多冰川湖中最大的一个,同时又是频繁发生突发性溃决洪水的冰湖,在1932-2008年的67a内发生溃决突发性洪水62次,其频率高达92.5%以上.随着气温的变暖,冰川减薄后退,冰川融水增多、冰湖库容增加,洪水总量在不断增大.冰川洪水的总量已经由1960-1970年代的1×108m3左右,增加到1990年以来的3×108～4×108m3,最高达5×108m3多;年最大流量1990年代较1950年代增多37%,洪水频率也在不断增加.库玛拉克河流域冰川物质平衡变化也对冰湖溃决洪水影响很大,冰川消融的越多,产生的冰川洪水洪峰也越大.随着全球气候进一步变暖,将会加大下游的防洪压力.所以,要加强冰川消融观测及冰湖水位的监测,建立预警系统,进行冰湖溃决洪水预报,为下游的防洪安全和水电安全运行提供科技支持.
Glacier meltwater in the Aksu Heyuan area and glacial lake ruin floods play a decisive role in runoff replenishment and downstream flood control in the Aksu River and even the entire Tarim River in China. The Mezbach Glacier in the Salzhady-Kumarak River Lake Merzbacher Lake is the largest of the numerous glacial lakes and is also the glacial lake where frequent and sudden floods have taken place. During the period 1932-2008, sudden floods were culled 62 times with a frequency of 92.5% With the warming of the glaciers, the glaciers receded, the melting of the glaciers increased, the storage capacity of glacial lakes increased, and the total amount of floods kept increasing. The total amount of glacier floods has increased from about 1 × 108m3 in the 1960-1970s Since 1990, 3 × 108 ~ 4 × 108m3 and up to 5 × 108m3 have been recorded. The annual maximum flux increased by 37% in the 1990s compared with that in the 1950s, and the flood frequency also increased continuously. The change of the material balance of the glaciers in the Kumarak valley was also significant Glacial ice floods have a great impact, the more the glaciers melt, the greater the glacier flood flood peak.With the global climate warmer, it will increase downstream flood control pressure.Therefore, to strengthen the glacier melting observation and ice lake Monitoring of the water level The establishment and establishment of an early warning system will make it possible to forecast the floods of the ice-lake collapse and provide scientific and technological support for the flood control and hydropower safety in the downstream.