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基于生态足迹理论,运用因子调整后的生态足迹方法,对广西2001~2012年的生态足迹进行时间序列测度。采用主成分回归分析方法,对广西2001~2012年生态足迹变化的社会经济驱动因素进行分析。研究表明:(1)广西人均生态足迹在逐年增长,而人均生态承载力没有发生明显变化,生态赤字和生态压力指数在逐年扩大,造成生态环境的一定压力;单位万元GDP生态足迹逐年减少、生态足迹多样性指数和生态经济发展能力逐年增加,表现出一定的可持续性。(2)广西的林地为生态盈余,但盈余在逐年减少,耕地为生态赤字,且赤字在逐年增加,草地基本保持在生态平衡状态。(3)广西生态足迹增长驱动因素的7个指标可以归结为经济发展状况和产业结构2个主成分因子。其中,人均生态足迹与人均GDP、固定资产投资、城镇化率、重工业比重呈正相关,与恩格尔系数、第三产业贡献率、万元GDP能耗呈负相关。据此必须调整产业结构和消费结构,促进经济转型,控制人口规模,加强基础设施建设,以促进广西可持续发展。
Based on the ecological footprint theory, the ecological footprint of Guangxi from 2001 to 2012 was measured by time series using the factor-adjusted ecological footprint method. Principal component regression analysis was used to analyze the socio-economic drivers of changes in ecological footprint in Guangxi from 2001 to 2012. The results show that: (1) The per capita ecological footprint of Guangxi is increasing year by year, while the per capita ecological carrying capacity has not changed significantly. The ecological deficit and ecological pressure index have been expanding year by year, resulting in some pressure on the ecological environment. Ecological Footprint Diversity Index and ecological and economic development capacity increased year by year, showing some sustainability. (2) The forest land in Guangxi is ecological surplus, but the surplus is decreasing year by year. The cultivated land is the ecological deficit, and the deficit is increasing year by year. The grassland basically maintains the ecological balance. (3) The seven indicators of the drivers of ecological footprint growth in Guangxi can be attributed to the two main components of economic development and industrial structure. Among them, the per capita ecological footprint is positively correlated with GDP per capita, investment in fixed assets, urbanization rate and the proportion of heavy industry, and negatively correlated with Engel’s coefficient, the contribution rate of the tertiary industry and energy consumption of 10,000 yuan of GDP. Therefore, we must adjust the industrial structure and consumption structure, promote economic restructuring, control the population size and strengthen infrastructure construction to promote the sustainable development of Guangxi.