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选取H市中心城区2009年和2010年发生的街头抢劫案件为研究对象,构建地理加权泊松回归GWPR模型,探讨不同性质土地利用对案件影响的空间差异性。研究表明,各类用地与街头抢劫的关系存在显著的空间异质性。其中,位于中心区外围的传统居住区和部分新建社区等居住用地对街头抢劫存在显著的负向影响;商业服务业设施用地对街头抢劫的影响总体上显著性不强,但与其中的商业设施点类型密切相关,独栋高层的商业综合体会使犯罪数量下降,而临街商铺形式的商业设施点则是犯罪高发区域;工业用地仅对老城区的街头抢劫产生正向影响;公园绿地总体上与街头抢劫案件呈负相关性,但城市开敞绿地多的地方案件数量也较多;交通设施用地与街头抢劫的关系则受到交通设施、道路等级、路网形态的影响。最后通过聚类分析发现,土地利用对案件影响的主导因素的空间分异模式与不同的城市功能分区有一定的对应关系,可以对每个功能分区根据其街头抢劫发生的主导因素制定相应的土地利用规划导则。
This paper chooses the street robbery cases in downtown H Cities in 2009 and 2010 as the research object, constructs the Geo-weighted Poisson Regression GWPR model and explores the spatial differences of the impact of land use on the cases. Research shows that there is a significant spatial heterogeneity in the relationship between various types of land use and street robbery. Among them, the residential areas located in the periphery of the central area, such as traditional residential areas and some newly-built communities, have a significant negative impact on street robbery. The impact of commercial service facilities on street robbery is generally not significant, but the commercial facilities Closely related to the type of point, single-high commercial complex will make the number of crimes decreased, while the commercial facilities in the form of street shops is a crime-prone area; industrial land use only has a positive impact on street robbery in the old city; There was a negative correlation between street robberies and cases, but the number of open green places in urban areas was also large. The relationship between traffic facilities and street robbery was affected by the traffic facilities, road levels and road network patterns. Finally, through cluster analysis, it is found that the spatial differentiation pattern of dominant factors of land use impact on the case has some corresponding relationship with different urban functional zoning, and each functional zoning can make corresponding land according to the dominant factor of street robbery Use planning guidelines.