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为了比较准确地确定天然气管网系统的薄弱环节,从脆弱性的概念出发,结合天然气管网系统的特点,建立了天然气管网系统脆弱性分析理论。基于灾害链理论,深入分析了天然气管网系统脆弱性要素,得出了导致管网系统脆弱性的外部破坏性威胁因素,确定了天然气管网系统的易受害部位。建立了管网系统外部威胁的脆弱性计算模型,采用历史资料与专家咨询的方法,定性分析了外部自然威胁的威胁水平与功能缺失程度;利用马尔可夫潜在影响模型,定量计算了人为破坏管网系统的威胁水平;利用燃气管网水力计算软件,确定了管网系统人为威胁的功能缺失程度。以北京某区域高压天然气管网系统为例,进行了脆弱性分析,确定了脆弱性较强的关键部位。
In order to determine the weak links of natural gas pipeline network more accurately, the vulnerability analysis is established based on the concept of vulnerability and the characteristics of natural gas pipeline network. Based on the disaster chain theory, the vulnerability factors of natural gas pipeline network system are deeply analyzed, the external destructive threats leading to the vulnerability of the pipeline network system are obtained, and the vulnerable parts of the natural gas pipeline network system are determined. Established the vulnerability calculation model of external threats to the pipe network system, and used the historical data and expert consultation methods to qualitatively analyze the threat level and the lack of function of external natural threats. By using the Markov potential impact model, The threat level of network system; the use of gas pipeline network hydraulic calculation software, to determine the degree of functional loss of man-made threats network system. Taking a high-pressure natural gas pipeline network in a certain area of Beijing as an example, the vulnerability analysis was conducted to determine the key parts with high vulnerability.