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本文利用2000年—2014年吐鲁番市旅游业发展的统计数据,通过弹性分析,解读旅游要素效应,并根据贡献率和拉动率,分析了旅游总收入对经济的影响力和贡献作用。结果表明:吐鲁番旅游收入总体呈增长趋势,但波动性较大;旅游人次与旅游收入总体上均呈上升趋势,入境旅游人次比重较低;游客人均消费水平呈上升趋势,但住宿支出所占比例较低;吐鲁番旅游收入对星级宾馆床位数及旅行社数量的敏感性不强,对社会消费品零售额和客运周转量的敏感性较强;旅游收入的贡献率和拉动率受社会异常事件冲击较大,并出现滞后反应。
Based on the statistical data of tourism development in Turpan from 2000 to 2014, this paper analyzes the effect of tourism elements through elasticity analysis and analyzes the influence and contribution of total tourism revenue to economy according to the contribution rate and pulling rate. The results show that: Turpan tourism income overall trend of growth, but greater volatility; tourist arrivals and tourism revenue are generally on the rise, the proportion of inbound tourists was lower; tourists per capita consumption level is on the rise, but the proportion of accommodation expenses Lower; the tourism income of Turpan is not sensitive to the number of star-rated hotels and the number of travel agencies; it is more sensitive to retail sales and passenger turnover of social consumer goods; the contribution rate and pulling rate of tourism revenue are impacted by social anomalies Large, and lagged response.