2008年美国金融危机的爆发及此后的持续震荡表明,以新古典宏观经济学为代表的西方主流经济学在对现代经济的解释、预测及危机应对方面存在重大缺陷。根据复杂系统理论,基于行为人建模,能较好地弥补新古典宏观经济学的缺失。而要避免危机,则必须重视国民收入分配的公平性,使生产、交换、分配、消费共同回归经济学的中心地位,同时鼓励经济学的多元化发展。 The outbreak of the financial crisis in the United States in 2008 and the sustained turmoil since then show that the mainstream Western economics represented by neoclassical macroeconomics poses major shortcomings in explaining and forecasting the modern economy and crisis response. According to the theory of complex systems, based on the model of perpetrator, we can make up for the lack of neoclassical macroeconomics. To avoid the crisis, we must attach importance to the fairness of the distribution of national income so that production, exchange, distribution and consumption return to the center of economics together, while encouraging the diversification of economics.