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运用模糊层次评价法对椿树垭隧道施工中可能遇到的地质灾害风险进行了评估。采用德尔菲法建立了椿树垭隧道地质灾害风险评价指标体系;运用层次分析法计算各风险因素的相对权重;以问卷调查的形式对各风险因素进行单因素评价并建立模糊关系矩阵;采用模糊综合评价法计算出椿树垭隧道地质灾害的风险等级及风险值。评估结果:在椿树垭隧道施工中最可能发生的地质灾害风险是岩溶和岩爆,其次为塌方和涌水,而发生大变形和瓦斯的可能性则非常小。椿树垭隧道整体综合评价风险等级为三级,即中等风险。应用表明:该方法是可行的,可以为隧道施工制定或完善施工方案和确定综合超前地质预报方法提供依据。
The fuzzy hierarchy evaluation method is applied to evaluate the risk of geological hazards that may be encountered in the construction of the Chunshuya tunnel. The Delphi method was used to establish the risk assessment index system of the Genshuasha tunnel. The analytic hierarchy process was used to calculate the relative weight of each risk factor. The risk factors were evaluated by single factor and the fuzzy relation matrix was established by the questionnaire. The comprehensive evaluation method calculates the risk grade and risk value of the geological disasters of Chunshuya tunnel. Assessment Results: The most likely geological hazards in the construction of the Chunshuya Tunnel are karst and rock burst, followed by landslides and gushing water, while the probability of large deformation and gas is very small. The comprehensive assessment of Chunshuya tunnel overall level of risk of three, that is, medium risk. The application shows that this method is feasible and can provide the basis for formulating or perfecting the construction scheme of tunnel construction and determining the comprehensive advanced geological forecasting method.