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采用AHP法和专家咨询调查法,对我国高速公路交通低能见度、降雨、冰冻雨雪和大风等4种气象灾害风险进行评估,共邀请了24名专家进行打分(南方和北方专家分别为10人和14人,气象专家和交通专家分别为10人和14人),打分结果表明:(1)对不同区域高速公路交通气象灾害的风险,北方专家认为致灾因子的危险性高于南方地区,而南方专家则认为环境的脆弱性远远大于北方地区(除了低能见度之外);(2)对不同行业,气象专家认为高影响因子的危险性和暴露性的贡献较大,而交通专家则认为脆弱性和防灾减灾能力的贡献较大;(3)相同地区不同行业专家的认知也存在一定差异。
AHP method and expert consultation survey method were used to assess the risk of four kinds of meteorological disasters such as traffic visibility, rainfall, freezing rain, snow storm and gale in our country. A total of 24 experts were invited for scoring (10 experts from south and north respectively (14), meteorologists and traffic specialists (10 and 14, respectively). The results of the scoring showed that: (1) For the risk of meteorological disasters in expressway traffic in different regions, the experts in North China considered that the risk of hazard was higher than that in the South, Southern experts, on the other hand, consider the vulnerability of the environment much larger than that of the north (except for low visibility); (2) the contribution of meteorologists in different industries to the high risk and exposure of high-impact factors is greater, while transportation experts Think that the contribution of vulnerability and disaster prevention ability is greater; (3) there are some differences in the cognition of experts from different industries in the same area.