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目的研究济南市极端降水事件对手足口病发病风险的影响,为手足口病的防控工作提供科学依据。方法收集济南市2007年1月1日—2012年12月31日手足口病发病的监测数据及同期济南市逐日气象监测资料,根据整个研究阶段的降水量分布情况,将日降水量>P90的日期定义为极端降水事件发生日。利用交叉相关确定各气象变量对手足口病发病影响的滞后期,然后采用Poisson回归模型,在控制长期趋势、季节趋势、星期几效应以及气温、相对湿度等混杂因素的基础上,分析极端降水事件对手足口病发病的影响。结果 2007—2012年间济南市共报告手足口病38 340例,发病主要集中在5—8月,7月达到高峰。交叉相关结果显示,极端降水事件对手足口发病的影响滞后6 d时效应最大;Poisson回归结果显示,相对于无降水事件(降水量为0 mm),极端降水事件造成手足口病发病风险增加24.6%(RR=1.246,95%CI:1.212~1.281)。结论极端降水事件可导致手足口病发病数的增多,应密切监测气象因素,防止手足口病的传播。
Objective To study the impact of extreme precipitation events in Jinan on the risk of hand-foot-mouth disease and provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of hand-foot-mouth disease. Methods The monitoring data of hand-foot-mouth disease and the daily meteorological monitoring data of Jinan City collected from January 1, 2007 to December 31, 2012 were collected. Based on the distribution of precipitation throughout the study period, the daily precipitation> P90 The date is defined as the date of the extreme precipitation event. Cross-correlation was used to determine the lag of each meteorological variable on the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease. Poisson regression model was then used to analyze the effects of long-term trend, seasonal trend, day-of-the-week effects and mixed factors such as air temperature and relative humidity The impact of foot and mouth disease. Results A total of 38 340 hand-foot-mouth disease cases were reported in Jinan City from 2007 to 2012. The incidence mainly concentrated in May-August and peaked in July. Cross-correlation results showed that the effect of extreme precipitation events on hand-foot-mouth was lagging 6 days after lag, and the Poisson regression showed that the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease was increased by 24.6 compared with no-rainfall events (precipitation was 0 mm) % (RR = 1.246, 95% CI: 1.212 ~ 1.281). Conclusion Extreme precipitation events can lead to an increase in the number of hand-foot-mouth disease. Weather factors should be closely monitored to prevent the spread of hand-foot-mouth disease.