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以全国房地产开发企业年度完成投资额、房地产投资结构总额及房地产融资成本3类指标为对象,采用2000年至2012年13年全国房地产开发数据进行非线性拟合,建立全国房地产投资系统动力学模型。分析该系统动力学特性得出:目前我国房地产业出现了一定程度的秩序混乱,但这不是房地产系统动力学行为;系统存在不稳定点,实际房地产开发过程中不会出现不稳定状态。通过动力学模型进行时至2050年房地产投资预测,2027年可能是房地产投资增势的分水岭,2027年前全国房地产开发企业年度完成投资额与全国房地产投资结构总额将呈现稳步增长势头,2028年以后稳步增长势头将被打破,表现显著增长态势。
Taking the annual real estate investment, the real estate investment structure and real estate financing cost of the whole country as the targets, this paper uses the 13 years’ national real estate development data from 2000 to 2012 to do non-linear fitting, and establishes the national real estate investment system dynamics model . Analysis of the dynamic characteristics of the system leads to: At present, there is a certain degree of chaos in the real estate industry in our country, but this is not the dynamic behavior of the real estate system; the system has instability and instability will not occur in the real estate development process. Through the dynamic model of real estate investment forecast to 2050, 2027 may be a watershed in real estate investment growth. By 2027, the annual real investment in real estate development enterprises and the total real estate investment structure will show a steady growth momentum. After 2028 Steady growth momentum will be broken, showing significant growth.