近年来我国性病患者数增长较快，各级政府十分重视防治工作．发达国家80年代已用数学模型估计参数和预测，但此项研究在我国尚未开展．94年初我们开始结合中国实际进行研究．上海市有健全的各级监测防治机构，每月统计发病人数．我们把理论模型（见生物数学学报，93年No.1，P18 In recent years, the number of STD patients in our country has been growing rapidly. Governments at all levels attach great importance to prevention and control work. In the 1980s, the developed countries used mathematical models to estimate the parameters and predictors, but this study has not been carried out in our country. In the beginning of 1994, we started to conduct research based on China’s actual conditions. Shanghai has a sound monitoring and prevention agencies at all levels, the monthly statistics of the number of patients. We put the theoretical model (see Biomathematics, 1993, No. 1, P18