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随着国民经济的发展,对水的需求量日益增加。某些地区由于就近缺乏水源,必须采用长距离输水方式来解决用水问题。长距离输水,管线长,地形复杂,具有一定的风险因素。给水管道风险评估是确定那些可能导致管道事故和有利于潜在事故预防的至关重要的因素,对这些风险因素的发生概率和其后果的严重性进行量化。在管道风险评估中确定管道风险因素的权数是一个重要环节,权数分配的结果直接关系到评价结果的精确程度。为了提高权数分配的合理性,应用系统工程中的层次分析法,通过两两对比的方法对非定量事件作定量分析,对主观判断作客观描述,减少主观因素可能带来的偏差。以管道风险因素框图为模型,介绍利用层次分析法确定权数的具体过程,进行每一项风险因素相对于管道事故的权数计算。
With the development of national economy, the demand for water is increasing day by day. In some areas, because of the lack of water nearby, long-distance water supply must be adopted to solve the water problem. Long-distance water, long pipelines, complex terrain, with certain risk factors. Water supply pipeline risk assessment is to determine those critical factors that can lead to pipeline accidents and to prevent potential accidents, to quantify the probability of occurrence of these risk factors and the severity of their consequences. Determining the weights of pipeline risk factors in pipeline risk assessment is an important step, and the result of weight distribution is directly related to the accuracy of evaluation results. In order to improve the rationality of weight distribution, this paper applies analytic hierarchy process (AHP) in systems engineering to quantitatively analyze non-quantitative events through a pairwise comparison method to objectively describe subjective judgments and reduce possible deviations caused by subjective factors. Taking the pipeline risk factor block diagram as a model, this paper introduces the specific process of using AHP to determine the weights, and calculates the weight of each risk factor relative to the pipeline accident.