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目的评价神木县大气污染与儿童呼吸道感染住院人数的关系。方法收集2009年11月至2012年10月间神木县的气象因素(气温、相对湿度)和环境因素:二氧化硫(SO_2)、二氧化氮(NO_2)和可吸入颗粒物(PM10),以及16岁及以下儿童的住院资料。利用SAS 9.3对气象、环境因素和住院人数资料进行描述性分析,并判断主要污染物。利用R 3.0.1统计软件的建立Poisson回归的广义相加模型,引入大气污染物浓度及气象因素拟合线性模型,并考虑其滞后效应,评价主要大气污染物对儿童呼吸道感染住院的相对危险度。结果神木县的首要污染物为PM10,PM10与空气污染指数(API)的相关系数为0.917,P<0.01。在控制了长期趋势、“星期几效应”、气象因素及其它污染物的影响后发现,首要大气污染物PM10浓度每上升10μg/m~3时,每日呼吸道感染住院患儿的上呼吸道相对危险度(RR)及其95%可信区间(95%CI)为1.002(0.996~1.007),t=0.589,P=0.556;下呼吸道为1.000(0.995~1.005),t=-0.007,P=0.995。当日或滞后1~10日内PM10浓度变化均不能显著改变儿童上、下呼吸道感染的住院率。结论神木县首要污染物PM10浓度变化对儿童上、下呼吸道感染的住院情况无明显影响。
Objective To evaluate the relationship between the air pollution and the number of hospitalized children with respiratory tract infection in Shenmu County. Methods The meteorological factors (temperature and relative humidity) and environmental factors in Shenmu County from November 2009 to October 2012 were collected: sulfur dioxide (SO 2), nitrogen dioxide (NO 2) and inhalable particles (PM10) Hospitalization information for the following children. Using SAS 9.3, descriptive analysis of meteorological and environmental factors and inpatient data was performed and major pollutants identified. Using R 3.0.1 statistical software to establish the generalized additive model of Poisson regression, the linear model of air pollutant concentration and meteorological factors fitting was introduced, and the lag effect was considered to evaluate the relative risk of major air pollutants to hospitalized children with respiratory tract infection . Results The primary pollutant in Shenmu County was PM10. The correlation coefficient between PM10 and air pollution index (API) was 0.917, P <0.01. After controlling the long-term trend, the effect of the “day of the week”, the meteorological factors and other pollutants, it was found that for every 10μg / m ~ 3 increase in the PM10 concentration of primary air pollutants, the upper respiratory tract The relative risk (RR) and its 95% confidence interval (95% CI) were 1.002 (0.996-1.007), t = 0.589, P = 0.556, lower respiratory tract was 1.000 (0.995-1.005), t = -0.007, P = 0.995. On the day or lag of 1 ~ 10 days PM10 concentration changes can not significantly change the children of upper and lower respiratory tract infection rate of hospitalization. Conclusion The change of PM10 concentration in Shenmu County has no significant effect on the hospitalization of upper and lower respiratory tract infections in children.