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政府投资对国民经济的影响是多方面的,既会从供给侧影响国民经济的运行,也会从需求侧影响国民经济的运行;既有直接作用于经济运行的效果,也有间接作用于经济运行的效果。本文采用国家预算内固定资产投资口径实证分析了政府投资的宏观效应,具体测算了政府投资对经济增长、消费、民间投资、城镇化发展的拉动作用。测算分析得出的结论和建议主要有:(1)政府投资对经济增长、消费、城镇化起到一定的积极作用。(2)政府要为民间投资更好发挥作用提供必要的政策支持。(3)从长期看政府投资与民间投资是互补的关系,保持适当的政府投资规模有利于体现积极财政政策效应。(4)政府投资规模既定下要不断优化投资结构。
The impact of government investment on the national economy is multifaceted. It affects not only the operation of the national economy from the supply side but also the operation of the national economy from the demand side. It also has the direct effect on the economic operation and indirectly on the economic operation Effect. This paper empirically analyzes the macroeconomic effects of government investment by using the caliber of investment in fixed assets in the national budget and specifically estimates the stimulating effect of government investment on economic growth, consumption, private investment and urbanization. The conclusions and recommendations drawn from the calculation and analysis are as follows: (1) Government investment plays a positive role in economic growth, consumption and urbanization. (2) The government should provide the necessary policy support for private investment to play a better role. (3) In the long run, government investment and non-government investment are mutually complementary. Maintaining the proper scale of government investment is conducive to embodying the positive fiscal policy effect. (4) The scale of government investment is set to continuously optimize the investment structure.