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自2005年中国汇率形成机制改革以来,热钱流入中国的话题就开始趋热。在2006年末,世界农产品价格大幅上涨,围绕粮食、食品的国内外投资和交易成为新的经济热点。鉴于最近中国农产品价格发生了强烈波动的事实和农产品市场的重要性,本文通过对热钱规模和农产品价格指数的月度数据进行实证分析,得出热钱与农产品价格存在均衡关系,是农产品价格变化的Granger原因。
Since the reform of China’s exchange rate formation mechanism in 2005, the topic of hot money inflow into China has started to heat up. In late 2006, the prices of world agricultural products rose sharply, and domestic and foreign investments and transactions around food and food became the new economic hot spots. In view of the fact that the price of agricultural products in China has fluctuated strongly recently and the importance of the market for agricultural products, this paper analyzes the monthly data of the price of hot money and the price index of agricultural products, and draws a conclusion that there is a balanced relationship between the price of hot money and the price of agricultural products. Granger the reason.