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2012年10月沪胶市场呈震荡缓慢回调走势。10月沪胶指数报收24691元,月度跌幅1.41%,月线收阴十字。11月天然橡胶市场重心有望震荡上移,欧盟轮胎标签法实施或成为对天然橡胶市场的最大冲击,美国轮胎特保案结束将适度冲抵欧盟标签法形成的负面作用。国内经济有见底信号,美国经济呈复苏状态,欧洲经济最坏时期估计已过去,全球释放流动性形成支撑,预计宏观拖累将弱化。基本面汽车消费总体不算乐观,但我国还处于汽车消费旺季,天然橡胶产业政策仍有收储和汽车下乡的预期存在,基本面偏弱但被其它信息所掩盖,仍然不是市场关注的重点。在经历10月的休整后,预计11月天然橡胶市场或呈现承压震荡缓慢回升的走势,沪胶指数目标为27000元。
October 2012 Hujiao market volatility slow callback trend. Hujiao index closed at 24,691 yuan in October, a decrease of 1.41% per month, the monthly income received Yin cross. November natural rubber market is expected to center up shocks, the implementation of the EU Tire Labeling Act or become the biggest impact on the natural rubber market, the end of the United States special safeguard tire will be moderated offset the negative effects of the EU labeling law. With the bottoming out signal of the domestic economy, the U.S. economy is in a state of recovery. Estimates of the worst of the European economy have passed and the global liquidity release has been formed. We expect the macro-economic drag will weaken. Fundamentals of auto consumption is not optimistic overall, but China is still in the peak season of car consumption, natural rubber industry policy still Shoufu and car to the countryside is expected to exist, the weak fundamentals but was covered by other information is still not the focus of the market . After experiencing a break in October, the natural rubber market is expected to show a slow recovery in the pressure shock in November. The Hujiao Index aims to reach 27,000 yuan.