论文部分内容阅读
本文使用1999年1月至2015年1月的月度价格指数数据,基于VEC模型实证考察了我国化肥价格波动与粮食价格之间的动态影响关系。结果发现:在短期内,化肥价格上涨将助推粮食价格上涨;而在长期内,随着粮食价格上涨、农民用肥需求的增加,化肥价格也将平稳上涨;粮食价格和化肥价格之间存在着循环波动关系。因此,当某一价格指数出现大幅上涨时,政府应从长远和全局的角度同时对化肥、粮食市场进行综合调控。
This paper uses the monthly price index data from January 1999 to January 2015, based on the VEC model empirical study of the dynamic impact of China’s fertilizer price volatility and food prices. The results showed that: in the short term, rising fertilizer prices will boost grain prices; in the long run, as grain prices rise, peasants demand for fertilizers increases, fertilizer prices will also rise steadily; between grain prices and fertilizer prices The cycle of fluctuations. Therefore, when a certain price index shows a sharp rise, the government should comprehensively control the fertilizer and food markets in the long run and the overall situation simultaneously.