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中国近三十年的经济转型提高了国民收入,提升了居民生活水平,使中国成为世界最大的制造国和出口国。1978—2014年,实际人均收入增长了16倍,超过7.5亿人脱离贫困线。下一个十年是中国从中等偏上收入国家转变成高收入国家的关键阶段。需要注意的是,下一个十年中国经济转型面临的条件和问题和三十年前大不相同。从中期看,随着结构调整、化解前期积累风险的政策调控的继续,中国GDP增速将逐步放缓。短期内,中国面临的最大挑战是加强金融部门的市场纪律。在稳增长的同时,实施能够优化信贷配置、去杠杆的各种政策是有必要的。从中期看,政策的着力点是推动中国经济有序转型,实现高生产率、公平和可持续增长。消除偏向服务业结构转移的障碍,有助于阻止总要素生产率增长的下降趋势,与此同时,提高GDP中劳动份额的各种政策会更快地实现从投资到消费的再平衡增长。
The economic transformation of China in the recent three decades has raised its national income, raised its living standards and made China the largest manufacturing and exporting country in the world. In 1978-2014, real per capita income increased by 16 times, leaving more than 750 million people out of poverty. The next decade is a crucial phase in China’s transition from a middle-income upper-middle-income country to a high-income country. It should be noted that the conditions and problems facing China’s economic restructuring in the next decade are quite different from those three decades ago. In the medium term, with the continued structural adjustment and policy control over the accumulation of risks in the previous period, China’s GDP growth will gradually slow down. In the short term, the biggest challenge China faces is to strengthen market discipline in the financial sector. While maintaining steady growth, it is necessary to implement various policies that can optimize credit allocation and leverage. In the medium term, the focus of the policy will be to promote China’s orderly economic restructuring and achieve high productivity, fair and sustainable growth. Removing barriers to a shift in the structure of service industries can help stem the declining trend in total factor productivity growth, while various policies to increase labor share in GDP will achieve more rapid rebalancing from investment to consumption.