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目的研究对北京市蚊虫密度产生影响的主要气象因素并分析其影响程度。方法采用北京市疾病预防控制中心2005-2007年5-10月共54旬的蚊虫密度数据及同期的平均气温、平均最低气温、平均最高气温、降雨量、降雨天数、日照时间、相对湿度、平均风速等气象资料,采用SAS9.0统计软件进行多元逐步回归。结果多元回归共线性诊断结果显示平均气温、平均最高气温与平均最低气温三者之间存在严重共线性,三者不能同时进入回归方程。多元逐步回归方程为y=0.53397X2+0.07814X7-2.67329X8-2.23256。其中X2代表平均最低气温,X7代表相对湿度,X8代表平均风速。结论与蚊虫密度相关的气象因素主要为平均最低气温、相对湿度、平均风速;按其影响程度大小依次为平均最低气温、平均风速、相对湿度。
Objective To study the main meteorological factors influencing mosquito density in Beijing and to analyze their influence. Methods The data of mosquito density in Beijing Center for Disease Control and Prevention from May to October in 2005-2007 from 2005 to 2007 and the mean temperature, mean minimum temperature, mean maximum temperature, rainfall, rainfall days, sunshine hours, relative humidity, mean Wind speed and other meteorological data, the use of SAS9.0 statistical software for multiple stepwise regression. Results The multiple linear regression diagnosis showed that there was a serious collinearity between the average temperature, the mean maximum temperature and the mean minimum temperature, and the three could not enter the regression equation at the same time. The multiple stepwise regression equation is y = 0.53397X2 + 0.07814X7-2.67329X8-2.23256. Where X2 represents the average minimum temperature, X7 represents the relative humidity, X8 represents the average wind speed. Conclusions The meteorological factors related to mosquito density are mainly average minimum temperature, relative humidity and mean wind speed. According to the degree of influence, the average minimum temperature, mean wind speed and relative humidity are the order of magnitude.