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为揭示区域综合交通运输需求与产业结构间的联系,运用协整理论,研究了客货运量与第一、二、三产业间的相互关系.结果表明:上海市综合交通客货运量分别与第二、三产业产值存在长期均衡关系;第一产业的发展不能用来解释客货运输需求的增长;传统的采用单位GDP(Gross Domestic Product)产生的货运量指标预测货运需求已不能完全适用产业发展方向;在10%置信水平下,认为货运量是第三产业产值的Granger原因,且第三产业产值是客运量的Granger原因,客运量对数关于第三产业产值对数的短期弹性为1.15,长期弹性为0.41,采用单位三产产值产生的客运量来预测客运需求是合理的;在25%置信水平下,客运量和第三产业产值互为因果关系,但客运需求对第三产业的促进作用要强于后者对前者的拉动作用,说明交通基础设施建设适度超前对引导经济发展和产业结构调整有显著作用.
In order to reveal the connection between regional integrated transport demand and industrial structure, the co-integration theory was used to study the relationship between passenger and cargo traffic and the first, second and third industries.The results show that the traffic volume of Shanghai integrated traffic is respectively There is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the output value of the secondary and tertiary industries; the development of the primary industry can not be used to explain the growth of the demand for passenger and freight transportation; the traditional use of the freight volume indicator produced by the Gross Domestic Product can not fully apply to the development of the industry Direction; the Granger cause that the freight volume is the output value of the tertiary industry at the 10% confidence level and the tertiary industry output value is the Granger cause of the passenger traffic volume, the short-term elasticity of the passenger traffic logarithm of the output value of the tertiary industry is 1.15, Long-term elasticity is 0.41. It is reasonable to forecast the passenger demand based on the passenger volume generated by the three-unit output. Under the 25% confidence level, the passenger volume and the output value of the tertiary industry are mutually causal relationships. However, the demand for passenger transportation on the tertiary industry The role of the latter is stronger than that of the former, which shows that the moderate advance of traffic infrastructure plays a significant role in guiding economic development and industrial restructuring.