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2016年伊始,我国城镇住房价格分化更加严重,上海、深圳、北京等一线城市住宅价格快速上涨,而三四线城市则面临着巨大的去库存压力。我国房地产业能否成为经济增长的稳定器?对于这一问题,需要放在宏观及产业层面的框架下进行思考,才能提出更加有效的解决方法。我将从经济增长逻辑、房地产业的升级与转型、政府角色定位三个方面来讨论房地产业供给侧改革。
From the beginning of 2016, housing prices in urban areas of our country have become more and more differentiated. The housing prices in first-tier cities such as Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing have risen sharply, while those in third-tier and fourth-tier cities have faced tremendous pressure on deploying inventory. Can China’s real estate industry become a stabilizer of economic growth? For this issue, it needs to be considered under the framework of macroeconomic and industrial levels so as to propose more effective solutions. I will discuss the real estate supply-side reform from three aspects: the logic of economic growth, the upgrading and transformation of the real estate industry, and the role of the government.