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近两年,笔者根据总供给(GDP)和总需求决定价格的理论框架,以计量经济学方法估算了1913~1926年中国的GDP,并从储蓄、投资和进口诸角度验证了GDP估算值的合理性。~1依据这一估算,1913~1917年间,中国的GDP总体上呈下降趋势(见表1),结果公布之后,引起学界关注和讨论。~2在我看来,第一次世界大战期间中国GDP呈下降趋势的估计是合理的,造成GDP负增长趋势的主要原因有三:第一,数据显示一战期间
In the past two years, based on the theoretical framework of determining the price of total supply (GDP) and total demand, the author used econometric methods to estimate China’s GDP from 1913 to 1926 and verified GDP estimates from the perspectives of savings, investment and imports rationality. ~ 1 Based on this estimation, from 1913 to 1917, China’s GDP generally showed a downward trend (Table 1). After the announcement of the results, it attracted scholars’ attention and discussion. ~ 2 In my opinion, the estimation of the declining trend of China’s GDP during the First World War is reasonable. There are three main reasons for the negative growth of GDP: First, the data shows that during World War I