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首先以53个沿海城市为区域研究对象,通过引入旅游发展指数来衡量单一城市的旅游发展的绝对趋势,同时通过计算该指数的变异系数分析城市之间旅游业发展的相对差异程度,得出结论:目前为止中国沿海城市之间旅游业发展仍存在差异,但是这种差异正在逐渐缩小.接下来建立灰色预测模型进一步分析相对差异的变化趋势,通过计算发现在2032年左右,53个沿海城市的旅游业发展程度趋同.还对所建模型进行精度分析,模型误差较小,能够合理预测.最后针对建模得出的结论给出合理的建议及对策.
First of all, 53 coastal cities were selected as research objects in this area. The index of tourism development was used to measure the absolute trend of tourism development in single cities. The coefficient of variation of this index was used to analyze the relative differences in tourism development among cities. : So far the development of tourism in China’s coastal cities is still different, but the difference is gradually narrowing.Next, the establishment of a gray forecasting model to further analyze the relative differences in the trend of change, calculated by 2032, 53 coastal cities The degree of development of tourism is also similar, the accuracy of the model is also analyzed, the model error is small, and it can be reasonably predicted.At last, reasonable suggestions and countermeasures are given according to the conclusions drawn by the model.