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本文通过构造基于一般生产函数单一投资品部门的四部门动态投入产出模型,为分析房地产投资对钢铁等行业投资进而对总投资造成的直接和间接影响提供了一个理论框架。模型结果表明同一期钢铁、投资品、其他部门的投资增长速度与房地产投资增长速度呈线性关系,下一期总投资增长速度与本期房地产投资增长速度呈线性关系。各线性关系式中的截距和斜率取决于前1期投入产出表、各部门投资和资本产出率。目前加强投入产出表等数据的时效性将有助于及时准确规划各行业投资增长速度,更重要的是发展完善的市场经济才能使国民经济各行业投资保持一个较好的平衡增长关系。
In this paper, we construct a dynamic input-output model of the four departments based on a single investment product department of general production function, which provides a theoretical framework for analyzing the direct and indirect impact of real estate investment on the total investment of steel industry and other industries. The results of the model show that the investment growth rate of steel, investment products and other sectors in the same period has a linear relationship with the growth rate of real estate investment. The growth rate of total investment in the next period has a linear relationship with the growth rate of real estate investment in the current period. The intercepts and slopes in each linear relationship depend on the first-phase input-output tables, the investment by sector and the capital output. At present, the timeliness of data such as the enhanced input-output table will help to timely and accurately plan the growth rate of investment in various industries. More importantly, it is only by developing a sound market economy that the investment in various sectors of the national economy can maintain a relatively balanced growth relationship.