本文通过分析我国东部地区水产品的生产供给潜力和消费水平 ,探讨了我国东部地区水产品流通和供求的平衡状态。在此基础上 ,用计量经济分析软件包MicroTSP回归分析了人均消 0费量与人均GDP ,人均消费量与时间序列 (T)的线形和对数关系 ;同时试图用生产历史统计数据推算人均消费量并进行预测。经过拟合优选 ,建立了以时间为解释变量 ,以水产品人均消费量作为被解释变量的回归方程 (Y =A +BT) ,并用该回归方程预测了东部地区中长期水产品的需求状况 This article analyzes the production and supply potential and consumption level of aquatic products in the eastern region of our country, and explores the balance of the circulation and supply and demand of aquatic products in eastern China. On this basis, the linear and logarithmic relationship between per capita consumption and per capita GDP, per capita consumption and time series (T) was analyzed by using MicroTSP regression of econometric software package. At the same time, it was tried to calculate per capita consumption using production history statistics Volume and forecast. After fitting and optimizing, a regression equation (Y = A + BT) taking time as explanatory variable and per capita consumption of aquatic products as explained variable was established, and the regression equation was used to predict the demand of medium and long-term aquatic products in the eastern region