经济是否进入“新周期”?关于这个话题的争论愈演愈烈。其中以两种观点为典型代表。一种是赞成派,以方正证券首席经济学家任泽平为代表,“新周期不是需求U型复苏,而是经济L型下的供给出清”。另一种是反对派,以天风证券首席经济学家刘煜辉为代表,“别高兴太早!中国经济从来都没有新周期,而只有债务杠杆!”。笔者认为,不用先急于争辩是不是新周期,概念不重要,重要的是现实是不是已经在发生变化?我们的全面深化改革取得了怎样的成效? Whether the economy has entered a “new cycle”? The debate on this topic intensified. Among them, two kinds of views are typical representatives. One is the pro-faction, represented by Ren Zeping, chief economist at Founder Securities. “The new cycle does not require the U-shaped recovery, but the supply under the economic L-type.” The other is the opposition, represented by Tian Yu Securities chief economist Liu Yuhui, “Do not be happy too early! China’s economy has never had a new cycle, and only debt leverage!” The author believes that there is no need to urgently argue that it is not a new cycle. The concept is not important. What is important is whether the reality is already changing and what has been achieved in our overall deepening of the reform?