旅游产业是我国的支柱产业之一，作为新的经济增长点的旅游业也是主要的创汇产业之一。2000年我国旅游入境人数为8344.39万人，国内居民国内旅游人数已达7.44亿，全国合计出游率达到59.1%。笔者在此采用灰色预测方法，样本选取的期间为1995年至2000年，并对今后几年的情况作出 Tourism is one of the pillar industries in our country. Tourism as a new economic growth point is also one of the major foreign exchange earning industries. In 2000, the number of China’s tourist arrivals was 83.4439 million, the domestic tourism of domestic residents reached 744 million, and the national total travel rate reached 59.1%. The author adopts the gray prediction method here. The sample selection period is from 1995 to 2000, and the situation of the next several years is made