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应用随机后悔最小化理论与随机效用最大化理论,分别建立RRM-MNL模型和RUM-MNL模型研究了出行方式选择行为。在模型参数、拟合优度方面对2个模型进行了比较,应用直接弹性分析了在交通管理措施评价方面的区别,并通过城际出行方式中的飞机、火车、长途汽车、小汽车4种出行方式数据进行实际验证。分析结果表明:相比于RUM-MNL模型,RRM-MNL模型能够描述在多属性方案选择过程中的部分补偿性决策行为和折衷效应,能更真实地反映实际出行行为选择过程;等待时间、出行时间和出行费用对飞机、火车和长途汽车3种出行方式的选择概率都具有弹性;在RRM-MNL模型中,等待时间对3种方式的弹性值分别较RUM-MNL模型的低7.30%、13.14%和7.70%。可见,对于同一属性变量,出行者具有不同的选择偏好,会表现出不同的选择行为。
Applying the theory of random regret minimization and the maximization of stochastic utility, we establish the RRM-MNL model and the RUM-MNL model to study the travel choice behavior. In terms of model parameters and goodness-of-fit, the two models were compared. The differences between the traffic management measures were evaluated by using direct elasticity. Through the intercity mode of travel, four kinds of aircraft, trains, coaches and cars Travel data to verify the actual way. The results show that compared with the RUM-MNL model, the RRM-MNL model can describe partial compensatory decision-making behaviors and trade-offs in the process of multi-attribute scheme selection, and can reflect the actual travel behavior selection process more faithfully; waiting time, Time and travel costs are all flexible for choice probability of three kinds of travel modes of aircraft, train and coach. In the RRM-MNL model, the elasticity values of waiting time and three modes are respectively 7.30% and 13.14 lower than that of the RUM-MNL model % And 7.70%. Visible, for the same attribute variables, travelers have different preferences, will show different choice behavior.