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2003年以来,我国经济进入新的经济增长周期,在投资和出口两大基本需求因素的强劲拉动下,国民经济一直维持在10%以上的增长速度,2007年更是达到11.9%。然而受次贷危机的影响,美国乃至全球经济减缓,致使我国在经济全球化的大背景下难以独善其身,快速发展的经济开始出现放缓迹象。2008年一季度,我国工业生产、投资和出口增速均出现不同程度的下降。近期,亚洲开发银行、世界银行、国际货币基金组织分别将我国2008年经济增速预测调低至10.0%、9.2%和9.3%。未来经济发展形势的不确定性使我国宏观调控的难度和力度明显加大,年初遭遇的雨雪冰冻灾害和5月份发生的汶川大地震也给经济发展带来了不确定性。
Since 2003, China’s economy has entered a new cycle of economic growth. Under the strong stimulus of the two basic requirements of investment and export, the national economy has maintained a growth rate of 10% or more and reached 11.9% in 2007. However, under the influence of the subprime mortgage crisis, the economic slowdown in the United States and the rest of the world has made it very difficult for China to excel in the general context of economic globalization. The fast-developing economy is beginning to show signs of slowing down. In the first quarter of 2008, the growth rates of China’s industrial production, investment and exports all showed different degrees of decline. Recently, the Asian Development Bank, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund have respectively adjusted their economic growth forecasts for 2008 to 10.0%, 9.2% and 9.3% respectively. Uncertainties in the future economic development have made the difficulty and intensity of China’s macroeconomic regulation and control significantly greater. The snow-ice disaster hitherto and the Wenchuan earthquake in May also brought uncertainty to the economic development.