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基于理性范式,遵循消费者均衡条件,根据我国面临的局部经济过热背景,推定了房地产投机的实质是需求结构扭曲,而且经济周期影响需求结构的途径是收入和替代效应,据此并借助空间几何方向余弦概念具体界定了房地产市场投机度,进而求解了收入效应和替代效应催生地产泡沫的诱因变量,确定了引发投机度波动的诱因变量变动域,即:货币的边际效用降低率越小,投机度越高;收入增长对投机度影响具有不确定性;缩小包括房地产在内的商品价格的上升幅度、增加非地产投资收益率并稳定地产投资收益率可抑制房地产泡沫.
Based on the rational paradigm and the consumer equilibrium conditions, according to the over-heating of the local economy, it is presumed that the essence of real estate speculation is the distortion of the demand structure, and the economic cycle affects the demand structure through income and substitution effects. Based on this, The concept of cosine of direction defines the speculation of the real estate market in turn, and then solves the inducement variables of the real estate bubble caused by the income effect and the substitution effect, and determines the changing field of incentives variables that lead to volatility of speculation. That is, the smaller the marginal utility of money, The higher the degree of income; the impact of income growth on speculation is uncertain; narrowing the rise in commodity prices, including real estate, increasing the return on non-real estate investment and stabilizing the real estate investment rate of return can inhibit the real estate bubble.