我国对经济模型的研究与应用已有多年,但效果不很理想。这一方面和数量经济学界的知识水平有关,另一方面也和政府及企业的决策体制有关。但我们数量经济学界只能去反思自己。经济模型概括地描述宏、微观经济的机理,应该能为改革与发展提供科学的政策建议。现在改革再一次进入调整阶段。但改革的目标是发展,背离发展目标的改革是不成功的。在今后一、两年的时间里,我们搞经济模型的要充分注意研究以下四个关键问题,以期为促进发展建立具有中国特色的思想库: 1.如何防止从批判货币主义走向另一端,即货币主义绝对化。经济系统中究竟哪些是可控量,是货币、利率还是物价、税率?单纯控制货币、信贷、基建规模能解决问题吗?保持高储蓄是否是通货膨胀的导火索?保值利率攀比物价上涨率能行吗? Our country has studied and applied economic models for many years, but their effects are not very satisfactory. On the one hand, it is related to the knowledge level of the quantitative economics community and on the other hand to the decision-making system of the government and enterprises. But we in the field of quantitative economics can only reflect on ourselves. Economic models that generally describe macroeconomic and microeconomic mechanisms should provide scientific policy advice for reform and development. Now the reform has once again entered the adjustment phase. However, the goal of the reform is development. The reform that deviates from the development goals is unsuccessful. In the next one to two years, we should pay full attention to studying the following four key issues in the economic model with a view to establishing a think-tank with Chinese characteristics for promoting development: 1. How to prevent from going from criticizing monetarism to another end, that is, Monetarist absolute. What is the controllable quantity in the economic system, is the currency, the interest rate or the price, the tax rate? Can the problem be solved simply by controlling the money, the credit and the infrastructure scale? Whether the high saving is the fuse of inflation? Can you do it?