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针对经济高速发展、交通运输方便快捷、城际间客运交通运输服务量不断增加而加剧能源需求量和环境排放量问题,以北京市为例,将城际间客运交通分为民航、铁路、公路三个部门,应用计量经济学软件EViews建立了各部门旅客周转量与地区生产总值GDP间的回归关系,模拟其未来的发展趋势;应用LEAP模型设定了不同经济发展模式和不同交通发展模式下的三种情景,预测了2015年北京市城际间客运交通的能源需求量和主要污染物的环境排放量,并分析了预测结果。指出要缓解能源供应和环境排放的压力,实现能源和环境的可持续发展,未来应深入探讨提高交通工具的燃料效率。
In view of the rapid economic development, convenient and rapid transportation, inter-city inter-city passenger transport services continue to increase and exacerbate the energy demand and environmental emissions, take Beijing as an example, the intercity passenger transport is divided into civil aviation, railways, highways The three departments, using econometric software EViews, established the regression relationship between the passenger turnover of each department and the GDP of GDP and simulated the development trend of the future. The application of LEAP model set the different economic development modes and different modes of transportation development Under three scenarios, the energy demand of passenger transport between cities in Beijing and the environmental emissions of major pollutants are predicted in 2015, and the forecast results are analyzed. Pointed out that to ease the pressure on energy supply and environmental emissions, to achieve sustainable energy and environmental development, the future should be further explored to improve the fuel efficiency of transport.