论文部分内容阅读
基于祁连山七一冰川平衡线高度观测资料,建立了该冰川平衡线高度与暖季气温(9,7和8月份的平均气温)和1～3月份降水量之间的统计关系模型,并揭示出暖季气温是该冰川平衡线高度变化的主导气候因素.对该冰川平衡线高度的气候敏感性研究表明,如果暖季气温升高(降低)1℃,那么该冰川平衡线高度将上升(下降)约172m;如果1～3月份降水量增加(减少)10%,那么该冰川平衡线高度将下降(上升)约62m.七一冰川平衡线高度在1958～2008年时期呈上升总趋势,并在2006年达到最高值(海拔5131m),接近该冰川的顶部.近50年来该冰川平衡线高度上升了约230m.如果未来气候维持2001～2008年时期的平均气候状况,那么七一冰川还将继续退缩约2.08km,才能达到其稳定状态.
Based on the observed data of the equilibrium line of the Qiyi Glacier, the statistical relationship between the height of the glacier and the temperature of the warm season (average temperature in September, July and August) and the precipitation in January to March was established. The temperature of the warm season is the dominant climatic factor of the glacier’s altitude change.The research on the climate sensitivity of the glacier’s equilibrium line shows that if the temperature of the warm season rises (decreases) by 1 ℃, the altitude of the glacier will increase (decrease ) Is about 172m, and if the rainfall increases 10% from January to March, the height of the glacier balance line will decrease (increase) by about 62m. The height of the balance line of the glacier in the July-January glacier tends to increase from 1958 to 2008 Reaching its highest point (5131 m above sea level) in 2006 and approaching the top of the glacier.The altitude of the glacier has risen by about 230 m over the past 50 years.If the future climate maintains the average climatic conditions during the period from 2001 to 2008, Continue to back about 2.08km, in order to achieve its steady state.