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目的通过时空聚集性分析方法,掌握2011-2015年陕西省肾综合征出血热(HFRS)发病情况的时空分布特征。方法收集“中国疾病控制信息系统”中2011-2015年陕西省各个县(区)HFRS报告数据,采用Geoda1.6.7软件进行空间全局和局部自相关分析,SatScan9.4.2软件进行时空扫描,同时将相关分析结果使用ArcGIS 10.2软件进行可视化地图展示。结果 2011-2015年陕西省累计报告HFRS 10 026例,年均发病率为5.35/10万,发病季节性呈现出明显的双峰特征(秋冬峰为10月至次年1月;夏季峰为6-7月),高发县区集中在关中地区;空间自相关结果显示区域内存在“高-高”(或热点区域,主要分布于西安、宝鸡和和咸阳)、“低-低”(或冷点区域,分布于延安、汉中、榆林和安康)等关联模式的县(区);时空扫描分析探测到时间维度为2012年10月-2013年1月,空间维度覆盖宝鸡、咸阳和西安部分县区的聚集区(RR=12.68,P<0.001),聚集区在5年中位置相对固定。结论陕西省HFRS发病具有明显的时空分布特征,关中地区为发病聚集区域,是HFRS的重点防控地区。
Objective To investigate the spatio-temporal distribution of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in Shaanxi province from 2011 to 2015 through spatial-temporal clustering analysis. Methods The HFRS data of various counties (districts) in Shaanxi Province from 2011 to 2015 were collected and analyzed using Geoda1.6.7 software for spatial and local autocorrelation analysis. The SatScan 9.4.2 software was used to perform spatio-temporal scanning, meanwhile, The related analysis results using ArcGIS 10.2 software for visual map display. Results In 2011-2015, a total of HFRS 10 026 cases were reported in Shaanxi Province, with an average annual incidence rate of 5.35 / 100 000. Seasonal seasonal manifestations showed a bimodal characteristic (autumn-winter peak was from October to next January; summer peak was 6 - July). The high-incidence counties were concentrated in the Guanzhong area. The results of spatial autocorrelation showed that there were “high-high” (or hot spots) in the area, mainly distributed in Xi’an, Baoji and Xianyang. (Or cold area, distributed in Yan’an, Hanzhong, Yulin and Ankang); time-space scanning analysis detected the time dimension from October 2012 to January 2013, the spatial dimensions cover Baoji, Xianyang And in some counties of Xi’an (RR = 12.68, P <0.001), and the area of aggregation was relatively fixed in 5 years. Conclusion The incidence of HFRS in Shaanxi Province has obvious spatial and temporal distribution characteristics. The Guanzhong area is the focal area of incidence and is the key area of prevention and control of HFRS.