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本文基于中国9省份、1772个农户、跨度10年的固定样本连续监测数据,检验了林地面积变动对农户营林积极性的因果效应,并进一步从非农就业、林种结构、林地规模和收入水平的异质性视角对上述效应加以分析。利用倾向值匹配方法控制了选择性偏差以后,估计结果发现:从总体来看,相比于控制组,林地面积增加使得农户资本投入强度提高了约26%~31%,且在1%的统计水平上显著,但是劳动力投入强度的增加并未通过显著性检验。这种资本对劳动的替代与农户的非农就业行为密切相关。从异质性角度看,上述处理效应在统计上仅对务农为主、拥有小规模林地和商品林为主的农户成立。这凸显出生态公益林的投资激励问题并没有因集体林改而得到有效解决。受森林采伐限额制度的约束,林地面积增加对用材林为主的农户并没有产生预期的投资激励效果。对于家庭收入水平,林地面积增加对农户营林积极性的影响呈现出库兹涅茨倒U型关系。上述结论为后续配套改革措施的政策着眼点和目标指向性提供了决策参考。
Based on the continuous monitoring data of 1072 fixed-sample in 9 provinces and 1772 peasant households in China, this paper tests the causal effect of the change of forest area on the afforestation enthusiasm of farmers and further analyzes the causal effects of non-agricultural employment, forest structure, forestland size and income level Heterogeneity perspective of the above effects were analyzed. After using the propensity value matching method to control the selective biases, the results show that: Overall, compared with the control group, the increase of the forest land area makes the capital intensity of the farmers increase about 26% ~ 31%, and in 1% of the statistics However, the increase in labor input did not pass the test of significance. The substitution of labor for capital by such capital is closely related to the non-agricultural employment of farmers. From the perspective of heterogeneity, the above-mentioned treatment effects are statistically only established for farmers who mainly work in agriculture and have mainly small-scale forest land and commercial forest. This highlights that the issue of investment incentives for non-commercial forests has not been effectively solved by the collective forest reform. Affected by the quota system of forest harvesting, the increase of woodland area did not produce the expected investment incentive effect for timber-dominated households. For the household income level, the influence of the increase of forest area on the enthusiasm of farmers in forest management shows the inverted U-shaped relationship of Kuznets. The above conclusion provides reference for decision-making for the follow-up supporting reform measures policy focus and goal orientation.