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本文以中国35个大中城市为研究对象,采用2005年7月~2015年2月的房屋销售价格数据,通过Phillips和Sul提出的logt收敛检验及聚类算法,考察房价收敛俱乐部的存在性及其分类结构,并利用排序Logit模型分析影响房价收敛俱乐部形成的因素。研究发现,无论是整体层面,还是东、中、西部3大地带,其城市房价均不存在收敛性;35个大中城市中存在4个房价收敛俱乐部和1个发散组,且不同俱乐部的收敛速度存在显著差异;在诸多影响因素中,人均GDP、房屋空置率是促使房价收敛俱乐部形成的主要驱动力。
In this paper, 35 large and medium-sized cities in China as the research object, using the sales price data from July 2005 to February 2015, using the logt convergence test and clustering algorithm proposed by Phillips and Sul to examine the existence of the house price convergence and Its classification structure and the use of ranking Logit model analysis of factors that affect the formation of the house price convergence. The results show that there is no convergence in urban housing prices in the three major areas of eastern, central and western China. There are four house price convergence clubs and one divergence group in 35 cities, and the convergence of different clubs Among the many influencing factors, the per capita GDP and vacancy rate are the main driving forces for the formation of the house price convergence club.