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近年来爆发的国际金融危机与欧洲主权债务危机,突显了建立公共财政安全预警机制的重要性。本文将基于政府会计和财务报告体系的短波财政预警机制、基于中期基础预算的中波财政预警机制和基于开放经济与浮动汇率制度的长波财政预警机制,这三者整合于财政安全监测预警机制的不同时间波段之上,建立一套从微观到宏观的分析框架,以解决我国公共财政预警机制的风险甄别与控制问题。
The international financial crisis and the European sovereign debt crisis that broke out in recent years have highlighted the importance of establishing an early warning mechanism for public finance security. This article will be based on the government accounting and financial reporting system, short-wave financial early warning mechanism, based on mid-term financial budget early warning mechanism and based on the open economy and the floating exchange rate system of long-wave financial early warning mechanism, which are integrated in the financial safety monitoring and early warning mechanism At different time bands, a micro-to-macro analysis framework is set up to solve the problem of risk screening and control of China’s public finance early-warning mechanism.