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研究作物产量对气候变化的响应,对于指导区域农业生产,保障粮食安全具有重要作用。该文结合大田试验与APSIM模型,在验证研究区冬小麦产量可靠性的基础上,分析降水和气温变化梯度组合情景下作物产量变化。结果表明:APSIM模型对冬小麦产量和生物量的模拟精度较高,决定系数R2为0.913,模型有效系数为0.874。冬小麦在气温升高、降水减少的情景下减产,减产幅度为31.3%;冬小麦在气温降低、降水量增加时增产,增产幅度为25.6%。研究结果对焉耆盆地冬小麦生产走势,制订农业布局、管理措施等具有一定意义。
Studying the response of crop yield to climate change plays an important role in guiding agricultural production in the region and ensuring food security. Based on field experiments and APSIM models, this paper analyzed the yield changes of winter wheat under the scenarios of precipitation and temperature gradient combination based on the verification of winter wheat yield in the study area. The results showed that the simulation accuracy of APSIM model on the yield and biomass of winter wheat was higher, the coefficient of determination R2 was 0.913 and the model effective coefficient was 0.874. Winter wheat reduced production under the condition of increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation, with a reduction rate of 31.3%. Winter wheat increased when the temperature dropped and precipitation increased, with an increase rate of 25.6%. The research results have certain significance to the production of winter wheat in Yanqi Basin, formulation of agricultural layout and management measures.