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本文以地震在空间上的区域性位移,作为时间上的分幕标志,提出了一种与作M-t图不同的周期表式的分期方法,按照这种方法,用华北、华南和西部特定地区近二千年的较大地震排列的地震活动周期表,周而复始地重现时、空、强特征相似的九个地震幕。其中华南和华北地区每个周期的最大地震——周期主震(简称主震),都排在位于同一横栏的主震幕内。在此基础上,研究了我国大陆东部上述两个强震区地震活动的周期特征与相互关系,阐明了周期前震(简称前震)的识别方法和前兆意义,得出未来数百年乃至更长时期内,华北不可能发生大于7.8级地震的结论。最后用地震震源区雪崩式不稳定裂隙形成模式,对周期成因作了解释。
In this paper, based on the regional displacement of the earthquake in space, a periodic table-based staging method that is different from the Mt diagram is proposed as a sub-screen mark in time. According to this method, The earthquake activity periodic table of 2000-year major earthquake sequence repeats the nine seismic curtains with similar characteristics of space-time and strong-force. Among them, the major earthquake-cycle mainshock (referred to as the main shock) of each cycle in South China and North China are all arranged in the main shock screen located in the same horizontal bar. On this basis, we study the periodicity and correlation of the seismic activity in the above two strong earthquake areas in the eastern part of continental China, clarify the identification methods and premonition significance of the pre-earthquake period (referred to as the pre-earthquake), come to the conclusion that in the future hundreds and even years Within the North China can not occur greater than 7.8 earthquake conclusion. Finally, with the avalanche instability crack formation model in the seismic source area, the cause of the cycle is explained.