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为揭示气候变化对干旱地区水文气象要素的影响,在对黑河上游莺落峡站以上地区1960～2010年平均气温、年平均径流、年平均日照时数、年降水及年平均相对湿度资料进行线性趋势分析的基础上,采用M-K非参数统计检验对其显著性进行判断,运用小波变换探讨了各序列的多时间尺度变化特征,并采用R/S法分析了流域各序列的持续性,估算各项指标的Hurst指数以定量估计未来序列的变化趋势。结果表明,该地区降水、气温和径流均呈上升趋势,相对湿度和日照时数均呈下降趋势;径流、降水、相对湿度和日照时数具有一致的主周期和次周期;黑河上游径流成分由降雨和融雪径流组成,同时受降雨和气温的影响。
In order to reveal the impact of climate change on the hydrological and meteorological elements in the arid region, linear regression analysis of the mean temperature, mean annual runoff, annual average sunshine hours, annual precipitation and annual average relative humidity data from 1960 to 2010 in the area above the site of Yinshuaxia Upstream in the upper Heihe River was carried out. Based on the trend analysis, the non-parametric test of MK was used to judge its significance. The multi-time scale features of each sequence were discussed by using wavelet transform. The continuity of each sequence in the basin was analyzed by R / S method. Hurst index of the index to quantitatively estimate the trend of future sequences. The results showed that the precipitation, temperature and runoff all showed an upward trend while the relative humidity and sunshine duration all showed a decreasing trend. The runoff, precipitation, relative humidity and sunshine hours had the same main and sub-periods. Rainfall and snowmelt runoff are also affected by rainfall and temperature.